April 30, 2017

The Democrats are Probably Stuck With Hillary

On September 11, 2016, the shoe finally dropped on Hillary’s health as one of the pillars of her campaign came crashing down.

There are concerns about Hillary’s health in the DNC,  how this may effect debate performance, and there is talk of replacing Hillary as the Democrat party candidate with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Tim Kaine, or even Michelle Obama.

The first problem is Hillary herself. In my opinion, Hillary would have to either go into a coma or be dead before she would willingly drop out, and since she is on the ballot in all of the states, it is technically up to her. Hillary Clinton is the person on the ballots in the states, not “the Democrat Party”.

If Hillary stays on while the Democrat Party pushes another candidate, the Democrats will have two candidates, which will split the vote and they will lose. So the Democrats MUST get Hillary OFF the ballot if they want to run another candidate.

But lets say that Hillary either dies, goes into a coma, or willingly steps down as nominee (which is not likely). The next problem is that several states’ have filing deadlines which have already passed.

State Filing Deadlines

Deadline Date by State for those States with Deadlines

State Supposed Deadline EVs
Michigan 7/29 16
Delaware 8/2 3
New Jerkey 8/4 14
South Dakota 8/9 3
Ohio 8/10 18
West Virginia 8/12 5
Missouri 8/16 10
Iowa 8/19 6
Louisiana 8/19 6
Mississippi 8/20 6
North Dakota 8/20 3
Montana 8/24 3
Virginia 8/26 13
Minnesota 8/29 10
Nevada 8/30 6
Oregon 8/30 7
Texas 8/30 38
Utah 8/31 6
Alaska 9/1 3
Idaho 9/1 4
Florida 9/1 29
Alabama 9/6 9
Wisconsin 9/6 10
Kentucky 9/6 8
Nebraska 9/8 5
Colorado 9/9 9
Hawaii 9/9 4
South Carolina 9/10 9
Indiana 9/13 11
Massachusetts 9/13 11
Vermont 9/14 3
Rhode Island 9/15 4
Washington 9/19 12

If the states stick hard to their filing deadlines, and the replacement for Hillary cannot get on the ballots in those states, it’s over.

The “blue” states in this list add up to 84 EVs, and the “swing” states add up to 91 EVs.

Another problem is the GOP may step in and block the rule change. They wouldn’t have to ultimately win the case, all they would have to do is keep it tied up in court until mid-October, and they’d only have to do it in a few states to make a Trump win assured.

And frankly, the GOP would have a case – they had to nominate a candidate on the basis of a bloody primary that appeals to be GOP base – they didn’t get to just pick the best general election candidate. Whereas the new Democrat candidate would be skipping that whole battle and the Democrat party could just put in their best general election candidate – someone who probably wouldn’t have made it through the primary. Imagine if the Republicans just got to say, “nah, we don’t like Trump. Lets put in Rubio” – Rubio would win by 10 points, and the Democrats would rightfully say that’s unfair.

But states can bend the rules. And lets say every single blue or swing state on this list is willing to ignore the deadline rules and allow on the new Democrat candidate and the Republicans don’t intervene at all. The next problem would be, ironically, early and absentee voting.

Early and Absentee Voting

Once early / absentee voting begins, you literally have votes already cast, i.e. the election has already started, and it seems to me that states would be unwilling to let a party change candidates once voting has already begun.

Dates in which some form of Early Voting / Absentee Voting Begins for States (before October)

State Date EV
North Carolina Sept. 9 15
Alabama Sept. 15 9
Kentucky Sept. 19 8
Minnesota Sept. 23 10
Michigan Sept. 24 16
South Dakota Sept. 24 3
New Jersey Sept. 24 14
Vermont Sept. 24 3
Georgia Sept. 26 16
Wisconsin Sept. 26 10
Wyoming Sept. 29 3
Iowa Sept. 29 6
Illinois Sept. 29 20

States with Early / Absentee Voting “By September 27”

State EVs
Maine 4
New Hampshire 4
Rhode Island 4
New York 29
Pennsylvania 20
Virginia 13
Delaware 3
South Carolina 9
Florida 29
Mississippi 6
Tennessee 11
Louisiana 8
Arkansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Texas 38
Nebraska 5
Missouri 10
Arizona 11
Hawaii 4
West Virginia 5

By September 27th, the “blue states” starting early voting will amount to 103 electoral votes, while the “swing states” starting early voting will amount to 97 electoral votes.

In reality though, it’s not a given that all of the blue or swing states will be willing to ignore their deadlines, and it’s likely that even less of those would be willing to let the democrats change their candidate once early / absentee voting has started.

This is ironic because democrats have normally been the big pushers for early voting, which is probably because they depend more on the low-info voter who is more easily bamboozled by “the news” and beliefs pushed at schools, and thus Republicans tend to close the gap over time. Basically Democrats want to blast you with narrative early when their big media is all you see, before you can find any alternative information sources, and then get you to make your decision immediately after being blasted.

But now this early voting, designed to shorten the time Repbulicans have to break through Democrat media dominance, might prevent states from taking Hillary off the ballot.

The McGovern Campaign

The only parallel to what the democrats are talking about with Hillary is what happened with Thomas Eagleton and George McGovern. Eagleton had clinical depression and stepped down, and McGovern became the party nominee. This happened on August 1, 1972.

But there were several differences between then and now. August 1 is before every state’s nominal “deadline” today besides Michigan, and it was probably before the deadlines then as well. And it was WELL before any early / absentee voting, if they had any. And of course Eagleton willingly stepped down.

Today, by the time the Democrats pick a new candidate, we will be well into early / absentee voting as past every state’s nominal filing deadline, and Hillary shows no signs of willingly stepping off of the ballots.

In my opinion, the democrats are stuck with Hillary unless Obama tries to suspend the elections, or somehow intervene to stop Trump from winning.

Facebook Comments
  • Mark Martinson

    I don’t think Clinton will give up. If things got really bad, she could say “If I’m elected, I’ll get sworn in then instantly resign” which would result in Kaine becoming president.

    The absentee ballots in most states have probably already been printed.

  • Mark Martinson

    If Clinton says “I drop out” and the dems get together and nominate Joe Biden, people would have to write him in. So with Clinton still on the balot the vote would get split.

  • Mark Martinson

    Now that I think about it, Clinton could just say that she would not serve. I elected then I imagine Kaine would automatically get sowrn in.

  • Daniel Balint

    You completely convinced me with the early voting deadlines.

  • Ye Deplorable Uncucker

    Hillary won’t drop out of the race even if she dies or goes into a coma.

  • Robert Hidalgo

    Hillary is ill, and it is clear that she is in this race to win it. The only way I see her removing herself from the ballot is to mitigate charges against her for acts of treason concerning her sending, receiving, and storing illegally declassified USA top-secret, classified communications.

  • Mark Martinson

    McGovern was the opresidential nominee and Eaglton the VP nominee. Eaglton quit and was replaced by Shriver. But the pinciple remains the same — it was done in a timely manner.