January 18, 2018

A Pathway for Republican Victory

November 17, 2016 RyanFaulk 26

It’s a new day for the Republican party and for conservatism. Trump showed a path for Republican victory going forward; and the fact that he himself was such a weak candidate who otherwise probably would […]

How we Correctly Predicted the Election

November 10, 2016 Francis 11

Ryan Faulk and I, who own this site, made a number of predictions about the 2016 presidential election: Trump would win Trump would out-perform polls, especially in the Rust Belt Trump would drive new voters […]

Why Trump Might Win Pennsylvania

November 2, 2016 Francis 5

There is a reasonable chance that this presidential race will be decided by who wins Pennsylvania. I think Trump is more likely than Clinton to win. Here’s why: The RCP average has Trump down by […]

Early Voting Predicts Final Voting

October 31, 2016 Francis 3

In their article “Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting,” Five-Thirty-Eight demonstrates that early voting is a moderately good predictor of final voting. This is the relationship between early voting and final voting in 13 states […]

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